Politics · 30 September 2009 ·
Interpreting the results of Germany's federal elections
The results of Sunday’s federal elections lead to a new centre-right coalition government which is economically much more liberal than the previous government. The Free Democrats were proclaiming drastic economic reforms during their electoral campaign and the Christian Democrats already indicated that they wanted to end the unpopular Grand Coalition with the Social Democrats for similar reasons. I try to explain the current strands of debate in Germany, and assess whether Merkel will now turn to Thatcherite positions.
The following text was a reply to a friend of mine asking me for my view on the German elections. It turned out to be rather lengthy, and I thought it might be worth putting it online
As you might have guessed I’m not too happy about the results. My main electoral goal—if I might say so—was to keep the Christian Democrats out of government. That didn’t happen. Also, in the elections in Schleswig-Holstein they managed to form a coalition with the Free Democrats, giving them the majority in the second chamber, the Bundesrat. However, this essentially also means the loss of the two-thirds majority in the Bundestag, making it more difficult to change the basic law.
What happens now, is not clear. I am just as curious as you are, essentially. The first statements of intention by the FDP and CDU are pointing towards the following:
- According to the weekly Der Spiegel, there will be cutbacks in the support for renewable energies and the running time of nuclear power plants is going to be extended. Interestingly, Der Spiegel argues that this will mainly pose a threat to solar power and coal fired power stations. Wind energy will reach the level of self-financing soon, and there is less tough competition due to the size of the plants. The German solar industry on the other hand now faces not only cheaper producers form China, but an even more difficult home market. The coal industry on the other hand will loose out to the fierce competition posed by the extended lifetime of nuclear power plants.
- The FDP intends to cut back on civil rights restriction and the internet censorship law introduced the by the former grand coalition. However, it is unlikely that they will be able to do that retrospectively. It’s much more likely that they will only be able to prevent further laws aimed in reducing civil liberties. It seems that Wolfgang Schäuble, former secretary of the interior will be replaced. He was one of the driving forces behind the supposedly anti-terror legislation that is responsible for the worst liberty cutbacks in recent German history, although Otto Schily under the SPD)/Green coalition already laid the foundations. (Schily, a fierce proponent of biometric fingerprints in passports is now supervisory board member of two companies for biometric technologies) Interestingly, a paper leaked from his ministry recently that suggested further legislation, pushing in the same direction as usual. It is not clear whether the FDP will be able to defend their position against the pressure of the CDU. In the last CDU-FDP government they failed to do so, and I have my doubts: To me it appears that they are more concerned about taxes than civil rights and liberties. On the other hand, the FDP consists of two wings: The socio-liberal wing and the economically-liberal wing. Sabine Leutheusser-Schnarrenberger, who belongs to the former, resigned under chancellor Kohl over a law introducing acoustic observation in private domain (“Großer Lauschangriff”), is likely to get the department of justice in a new government—which would give hope for the future. Furthermore, the FDP is now much stronger than in their last coalition and might be able to put more pressure not the CDU. Time will only tell whether they’ll use it right.
- A side note about Schäuble: He will presumably get a position in the European Commission, where he has the potential to bring about mischief to the rest of Europe, too, with the backing of a strong Conservative fraction in the European Parliament.
- Regarding the social system I have no idea what will happen. On the one hand the social system in Germany is deeply rooted in society. It will be hard to weed out. However, already under chancellor Schröder advances were made that went further than under the previous government lead by the Christian Democrats. Some commentators argue that only a left-wing government like the one under Schröder could have implemented these reforms; the extra-parliamentary protest would be much bigger under a centre-right coalition. Also, different wings within both, the Christian Democrats as well as the FDP play a role again. In the FDP some wings are indeed not so much concerned about radical free marketism, in the Christian Democrats, there is a deep fear that too radical cutbacks will alienate voters. (Generally I perceive this party as a party lead by fear) Particularly the Bavarian CSU would be most hesitant about this. (whilst being the loudest to proclaim tax cuts at the same time) Furthermore both parties rejected criticism that they stand for cutbacks in the social system, proclaiming that they simply want to make it more sustainable. However, we will definitely not get a minimum wage and it is likely that the division between private and public health care will increase.
- Similar to Thatcher, the privatisation of the German railway will presumably go ahead. Advances were already made under the previous government, but the Social Democrats insisted on privatising only 25% (I might be wrong on that number though, but the Government certainly kept a majority share) However, this will probably be conducted different to the British privatisation. Instead of splitting up the Deutsche Bahn, it will be privatised as a whole. It is unclear what this means for the future.
- The German Pirate Party scored 2%. It will be interesting to see how the party will continue to develop and whether it can retain its momentum. In the weeks before the elections it was able to attract enormous attention from the media, considering its size and electoral share. On the other hand, it has become the seventh-biggest party in Germany, after the Greens. (Christian Democrats and the Bavarian Christian Socialists are counted as two distinct parties, although they are part of one faction in the federal parliament) and is still growing. It’s not clear whether it will be able to continue attracting voters. This probably depends on the legislation of the future governments, too: If continues to limit civil rights and is generally internet-unfriendly, it is likely to do so. Otherwise I don’t know whether voters will find further incentives to vote for the Pirates. It will certainly be interesting to observe their development.
- The Social Democrats are shattered, at least for the moment. In a way that’s terrible. But being out of government also means that they will be able to rebuild themselves and get back to their “core values”. The old guard behind the drastic social reforms might has to step back. There’re rumours that Steinmeier just resigned and will not stand for party leader, as he intended immediately after the elections. However, a shift to the left is not risk-free—the new Left party (A merger of the successor of the Socialist Unity Party, PDS, and the young left party WASG) gained in strength significantly, and filled this formerly empty space. And looking back to Labour in the ’80s, such an approach seems very dangerous, but this is neglecting different conditions in Germany. Either way, if they have chance at all, it is probably only together with the Left Party and the Greens. Hence it is unlikely that the new SPD leadership will dismiss that option in advance, as they’ve done during this year’s electoral campaign, due to the history of Die Linke as the successor of the former Socialist Unity Party of East Germany. Interestingly, the fiercest opposition against such a coalition came from the western parts, where the Left Party mainly consists of defected Social democrats, disappointed with the social cuts introduced under chancellor Schröder and not former SED-members. Either way, I wouldn’t write of the Social Democrats yet, they are still strong in some Bundesländer, and they won the election in Brandenburg. (Without losing votes in fact) In my view their key problem is that they lost touch with the regular party members, and strengthened top-down decision-making processes. This made it almost impossible for the party’s base to influence major political decisions.
Speaking of Brandenburg, that’s the place the good news come from:
- The SPD will form the government, presumably with the CDU as in the previous government or with the left.
- The Green party made it into the parliament.
- The Nazi-Party DVU did not.
So, well, to sum it up… I’m not sure what will happen next. On the one hand I am slightly optimistic that it won’t be as bad as I expect it to be. Maybe the new government will not be as bad as Thatcher’s, particularly considering the liberty-focused FDP and the lazy and overaged CDU. On the other hand I’m very pessimistic—it might be even worse. I haven’t made up my mind yet and I’m looking into the future with a morbid curiosity…
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